«Optimistic for 2022»

Even if supply bottlenecks are weighing on economic growth in the short term, there are also positive signs. "Order books in the manufacturing sector are full and we see upbeat consumers", says VP Bank Chief Investment Officer Felix Brill in the interview format "Our View - The Questions". 

Yet, investors in the bond market are more pessimistic. In October, the US yield curve flattened because short-term interest rates rose and at the same time, long-term rates fell. "In the past, this has often been a warning signal that the economy is deteriorating, or worse, that a recession is looming. However, we believe that there is too much pessimism, and this will go away."

Nevertheless, investors should not ignore the signals, says Brill. For the time being, portfolios remain focused on growth, but apart from broad diversification, he would recommend "some defensive elements", such as "minimum variance products" in equities or gold.

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