«Yields will go up»
The economic recovery is in full swing. The shortages of goods such as timber or semi-conductors are also signs of this. But that is not a showstopper, says Felix Brill, Chief Investment Officer at VP Bank. "Order books are full, Consumers are willing to spend and in Europe the economy could soon reopen".
If the economic recovery is strong and prices rise, central banks will step in sooner or later. "Central banks will face questions with regard to their extraordinary measures", says Brill in the latest Video accompanying the monthly VP Bank market review by the name "Our View". "First, the Fed will have that discussion, the question will be when and how the Fed will start its tapering."
And yields will go up as a consequence. "We can be certain of that as certain as we will ever be. We see the recovery gaining strength, we see inflation picking up and on top of that there are the discussions around tapering. This cocktail will lead to higher yields", says Brill.
And in Switzerland and Germany, he reckons, there is a high chance that yields might go back above zero.
